探寻南沙景观的韧性与公平城镇化之路 / 华南农业大学 + 区域演化工作室

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Thanks South China Agricultural University + Regional Evolution Studio for authorizing the publication of the project on mooool, Text description provided by South China Agricultural University + Regional Evolution Studio.

华南农业大学 + 区域演化工作室：城市化正改变着世界各地的乡土景观，对其生态根基、文化延续和社会结构带来冲击。位于粤港澳大湾区中心、珠江入海口处的广州南沙，正是这样一个快速而深刻转变的景观区域。数百年来，适应性的水利与农业活动塑造了独特圩田系统，孕育出具有韧性的社会生态格局。然而，国家战略和市场力量加速推动着大规模转型，使传统景观格局、地方自发诉求与自上而下的规划管控之间的矛盾日益凸显。

本项目试图探索在多种空间逻辑相互竞争的背景下，南沙如何实现可持续的演变。项目采用“通过设计研究”的方法框架，结合广泛的公众参与和前沿的计算机模拟技术，系统性地评估多种发展策略，探索其长期社会生态影响，并将研究结论转化为万顷沙南部的示范性设计方案。该项目展示了前沿数字工具与地方知识如何协同作用，在具有重要文化价值却快速变迁的地区，推动更具韧性和公平性的景观实践。

South China Agricultural University+Regional Evolution Studio: Urbanization is reshaping indigenous landscapes across the globe, putting pressure on their ecological foundations, cultural continuity, and social structures. Nansha—located in the Pearl River Estuary at the heart of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area—is one such place undergoing rapid and profound change. For centuries, Nansha’s distinctive polder system, shaped by adaptive water management and agricultural practices, has fostered a resilient socio-ecological fabric. Yet, national development goals and market forces have accelerated large-scale transformation, creating tensions between traditional landscape patterns, spontaneous local aspirations, and top-down planning mandates.
This project addresses the central challenge of how indigenous landscapes can evolve sustainably amid competing spatial logics. Through a “Research-through-Design” methodology supported by participatory approaches and cutting-edge computational simulation, the study tests alternative development strategies, assesses their long-term socio-ecological impacts, and translates findings into a demonstration design for southern Wanqingsha. The project illustrates how digital tools and local knowledge can work together to advance resilient and equitable landscape practices in culturally rich yet rapidly changing regions worldwide.

▽项目视频

▽场地：南沙位于粤港澳大湾区的中心，是一个由数百年的适应性水利和农业活动所塑造的圩田景观 © 区域演化工作室

▽快速的大规模城镇化：南沙于2011年成为国家级新区，此后颁布的一系列总体规划提出了宏大的城镇化目标 © 区域演化工作室

背景：三种冲突的空间秩序

南沙存在三种迥异的空间秩序，它们源于不同的社会过程与价值观念，代表了三种相互竞争的未来发展策略：
1) 基于传统的策略：聚落沿圩田边缘的堤围延伸，由适应性水利和农业活动塑造，体现了深刻的本地生态知识。
2) 基于意愿的策略：沿主要景观要素和基础设施展开的自发城镇化，由原住民和外来者的自主需求驱动，反映了自下而上的、有机的增长。
3) 基于分区的策略：政策主导的分区规划，伴随着大规模的土地征用，追求自上而下的控制和效率，是当代典型的城市化模式。

三种秩序的冲突加剧了场地的生态破碎，威胁着文化延续与社会公平，同时也提供了多样的空间逻辑和独特的设计机会。在此背景下，本项目试图解决：南沙的未来发展如何协调这些冲突的秩序，实现生态韧性并促进社会公平。

Background: Three Competing Spatial Orders

Three distinct spatial orders are identified in Nansha, underpinned by different social processes and values, representing competing strategies for future development:
1) Tradition-based: Settlements extend along polder edges, shaped by adaptive water management and agriculture practices, embodying deep, place-specific ecological knowledge.
2) Willingness-based: Spontaneous urbanization emerges along key land features and facilities, driven by the autonomous demands of local residents and immigrants, and embodying bottom-up, organic growth.
3) Zoning-based: Government-led zoning planning, implemented through land expropriation, pursues top-down control and efficiency, characteristic of contemporary urbanization models.
The friction among these orders threatens cultural continuity, ecological integrity, and social fairness. Yet, this very tension reveals divergent spatial logics and unique design opportunities. Against this backdrop, the project asks: How can Nansha’s future growth reconcile these conflicting logics while enhancing ecological resilience and social justice?

▽三种空间秩序——圩田格局、自发增长与分区规划——的竞争与冲突威胁着生态韧性与社会公平 © 区域演化工作室

▽研究问题：不同规划策略及其权衡方式如何影响不同利益相关者视角下的景观可持续性 © 区域演化工作室

方法：通过设计研究 + 多主体模型

本项目运用了“通过设计研究”方法，系统性地测试上述三种策略及其不同权衡方式（共25种情景）的效益。

项目构建了一个多主体模型。模型中，景观尺度的变化由大量自主决策的个体（主体）行为所驱动。主体的行为参数源于对137位利益相关者的深度访谈，使模型能反映现实中当地村民、城镇居民和潜在定居者的真实动机。此外，可通过调节“堤围格局”和“分区规划”对主体行为的影响程度，模拟不同策略之间的权衡。

Methods: Research-through-Design + Agent-based Modeling

The project employed a Research-through-Design approach, systematically testing the three strategies and their trade-offs across 25 scenarios.

An agent-based model was developed, which simulates future landscape changes as the outcome of decisions made by many autonomous local actors (the “agents”). Parameters for agent behaviors were informed by 137 in-depth stakeholder interviews, ensuring that the model reflects real-world motivations of local villagers, urban residents, and new migrants. Trade-offs among the spatial strategies were modeled by adjusting the restrictions on agents’ behaviors imposed by the polder structure and zoning regulations.

▽方法：使用多主体模型对不同设计方案进行实验，通过研究与设计的相互反馈，实现在不确定性中学习 © 区域演化工作室

▽团队收集了137位利益相关者（村民、城镇居民和专家）的观点，并将其结合到建模与评估过程中 © 区域演化工作室

▽模型可以模拟用户自定义情景下，多种主体（村民、重建者、搬迁者、迁入者）行为驱动的景观变化 © 区域演化工作室

▽5种典型情景下的景观变化过程模拟，直到人口和城镇化率达到规划目标 © 区域演化工作室

为了评估所模拟的情景的可持续性，研究团队与利益相关者合作构建了一个包含11个指标的评估框架，涵盖环境、经济和社会维度——从水系统韧性和生物多样性，到地方生计和美学文化价值。这些指标在模拟过程中逐年动态计算，实现了过程导向的可持续性评估，而非仅衡量单一静态的切面。

该模型具有一个交互性界面，且对公众开放。使用者可以自由探索情景，实时观察景观格局和指标的变化，从而支持参与式、知情的决策。

To assess the sustainability of simulated scenarios, an 11-indicator framework was developed in collaboration with stakeholders, covering environmental, economic, and social dimensions—from water resilience and biodiversity to local livelihoods and aesthetic-cultural values. These indicators were dynamically monitored annually within the simulations, enabling a process-based, longitudinal sustainability evaluation rather than a static snapshot.

The model is publicly accessible with an interactive interface, allowing users to explore scenarios, visualize landscape dynamics, and track indicator changes, facilitating participatory and informed decision-making.

▽使用11个指标评估不同情景的可持续性，指标由利益相关者选择，赋予权重，并逐年计算 © 区域演化工作室

▽在两个时间尺度上，比较了5种情景下、不同利益相关者视角下的可持续性评估结果 © 区域演化工作室

结论：传统景观格局的价值

模拟结果为不同情景的影响提供了循证的理解。 “意愿优先”情景（优先满足公众需求）实现了最高的社会经济收益。 “分区优先”情景（优先遵循分区规划）表现不佳。 “传统优先”情景（优先保护传统堤围结构）产生了更为均衡的效益，且在环境维度上表现尤为突出。根据“强可持续性”原则——相较于社会经济价值，自然价值具有独特的不可替代性——“传统优先”情景被确定为支持南沙长期可持续发展的最佳路径。

Conclusion: Merit of the Traditional Landscape Structure

The results provide evidence-based insights into the scenarios’ impacts. The Willingness-First scenario (prioritizing lay stakeholders’ demands) achieved the highest socio-economic benefits. Conversely, the Zoning-First scenario (prioritizing zoning regulations) underperformed. Importantly, the Tradition-First scenario (prioritizing the traditional polder structure) produced the more balanced benefits, excelling in environmental sustainability. Following the “strong sustainability” principle—which emphasizes that natural capital holds irreplaceable value compared to socioeconomic capital—the Tradition-First scenario was identified as supporting the strongest long-term sustainability pathway for Nansha.

▽“传统优先”情景可以带来更为均衡的效益，而其他情景中，伴随着社会经济效益的飙升，环境效益出现骤降 © 区域演化工作室

应用：景观主导的万顷沙南部设计

基于研究结论，项目为万顷沙镇南部提出了一个示范性景观设计，作为对现行分区主导框架的一种可行的替代。该方案倡导一种景观引导的城镇发展框架。新城镇沿传统的堤围–河涌结构延展，并设置绿色缓冲区，以应对未来气候不确定性下的洪水风险，可抵御200年一遇的洪水（水位上升3.46米）。

Application: A Landscape-Led Design for Southern Wanqingsha

Based on the research conclusions, the project has proposed a demonstration landscape design for the southern part of Wanqingsha Town as a feasible alternative to the current zoned dominant framework. This plan advocates a landscape-guided urban development framework. The new town extends along the traditional embankment-river structure and sets up a green buffer zone to deal with the flood risk in the face of future climate uncertainties, capable of withstanding a once-in-200-year flood (with a water level rise of 3.46 meters).

传统的水管理系统——包括低洼的农田，以及与河涌相连的沟塘系统——得到保留，并与雨水花园、生物滞留设施、绿色屋顶和社区农场等当代可持续设计要素相结合。新的结构并非取代原有肌理，而是与其交织，形成一个开放框架，支持渐进的、自愿的城镇化。该设计创造了多孔的、适应性的城市肌理，使高密度、复合功能的城市街区与农业生产性景观、传统聚落格局有机共生，从而维系本地生计、社区联系与身份认同，促进更广泛的社会公平。

Based on these findings, a demonstration landscape design was proposed for southern Wanqingsha Town, serving as a viable alternative to the prevailing zoning-led planning framework. The proposal advocates for a landscape-led urban framework. New urban plots expand along existing polder–canal structures, with integrated green buffers designed to accommodate floods under future climate uncertainties. The design is engineered to withstand a 1-in-200-year flood event (a 3.46m water level rise) under projected climate conditions.

Traditional water management systems—featuring low-lying farmlands with ditch–pond systems linked to canals—are preserved and integrated with contemporary sustainable design approaches, including rain gardens, bioretention systems, green roofs, and community farms. The new structure interweaves with, rather than replaces, indigenous orders as an open-ended framework facilitating gradual, voluntary urbanization. This creates a porous, adaptive urban fabric where high-density, multifunctional urban blocks coexist with productive agricultural landscapes and traditional settlement patterns, sustaining local livelihoods, community ties, and identity, promoting greater social equity.

专业贡献：研究与设计的紧密合作

本项目通过参与式、迭代的设计与研究过程，展现了卓越的专业性。其循环过程——从利益相关者调研到策略识别、模拟与影响评估，以及最终的设计转化——使严谨的科学研究与尊重文化的设计能够相互启发。同时，本项目展示了前沿数字工具与本土知识的结合，以应对棘手的社会经济挑战，为全球脆弱的文化景观提供了一种迈向韧性与公平的城镇化模式。

Professional Contribution: Close Collaboration Between Research and Design

This project exemplifies professional excellence through a participatory and iterative design-research process. Its cyclical structure—moving from stakeholder investigation to strategy identification, impact assessment via simulation, and finally, design translation—ensures that rigorous inquiry and culturally sensitive design inform each other. In addition, this project shows the power of combining cutting-edge digital tools with indigenous knowledge in addressing wicked socio-ecological challenges, presenting a model for resilient and equitable urbanism relevant for vulnerable cultural landscapes worldwide.

项目名称：探寻南沙景观的韧性与公平城镇化之路
项目类型：设计研究
设计方：华南农业大学，区域演化工作室
项目团队：刘京一，张梦晗，陈崇贤，夏宇，冯丽萍，倪达凡，王颖然，林泽轩
联系邮箱：liujingyi@scau.edu.cn
设计年份：2025年
项目地址：广州市南沙区
项目面积：784 km2
获奖情况：2025年英国皇家风景园林学会（LI）大奖

Project name: Seeking Resilience and Equity in the Urbanization of Nansha Landscape
Project type: Design research
Design: South China Agricultural University, Regional Evolution Studio
Project team: Jingyi Liu, Menghan Zhang, Chongxian Chen, Yu Xia, Liping Feng, Yingran Wang, Zexuan Lin
Contact e-mail: liujingyi@scau.edu.cn
Design year: 2025
Project location: Nansha District, Guangzhou
Project area: 784 km2
Awards: Landscape Institute Awards 2025 Winner

“ 项目展示了前沿数字工具与本土知识的结合，以应对棘手的社会经济挑战，为全球脆弱的文化景观提供了一种迈向韧性与公平的城镇化模式。”

审稿编辑：Maggie

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